Is India’s Growth Rate Sustainable

India recorded 8.2% GDP growth in 2024–25, reflecting strong economic momentum, but the IMF assigned a ‘Grade C’, citing structural weaknesses in data and institutional capacity. This raises questions about the long-term sustainability of growth.

Current Growth Scenario

  • Overall GDP & Sectoral Growth: GDP expanded 8.2%, with manufacturing 9.1% and services 9.2% (financial services 10.2%). GVA rose from ₹82.88 to ₹89.41 lakh crore, showing real value addition.
  • Consumption & Agriculture: PFCE up 7.9%, households spending more; agriculture grew 3.5%, aided by better irrigation and horticulture output.
  • Price Stability & Banking: Inflation remained moderate (nominal GDP +8.8%). Banks maintained strong balance sheets and capital buffers.
  • Fiscal & External Position: Government continued fiscal consolidation via GST/direct taxes; external sector stable, CAD low, forex reserves adequate.
IS INDIA’S GROWTH RATE SUSTAINABLE

IMF’s Assessment (‘Grade C’)

  • Data Gaps: Outdated base year (2011–12), lack of Producer Price Indices, single deflation issues, and informal sector coverage weak.
  • Statistical Limitations: Gaps between production- and expenditure-based GDP, no consolidated state/local data since 2019, and absence of seasonal adjustments.
  • Key Message: High growth numbers exist, but the institutional and data framework supporting them is weak.

Structural Vulnerabilities

  • Uneven Sectoral Growth: Mining (0.04%) and utilities (4.4%) remain sluggish, showing backbone sectors are weak, while services dominate output but create fewer high-productivity jobs.
  • Employment & Productivity Mismatch: Too many workers in low-productivity agriculture and informal services.
  • External Risks: Exports vulnerable to global protectionism, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions; services and remittances cannot fully offset weak goods exports.
  • State-Level Weaknesses: Poor institutional capacity at state and local levels affects policy delivery and economic governance.

Contradictions in the Growth Story

  • High GDP growth masks structural weaknesses: uneven sectoral recovery, low industrial productivity, and job creation challenges.
  • Economic momentum is strong, but underlying institutions and governance frameworks are yet to fully support sustained high-quality growth.

WHAT IS GDP GROWTH RATE?

GDP growth rate measures how fast a country’s economy is growing over a period, usually a year or a quarter. It shows the percentage increase in the value of all goods and services produced (GDP) compared to the previous period.

Importance of GDP Growth Rate

  • Economic Health: Shows whether the economy is expanding or contracting, helping policymakers make decisions.
  • Investment & Jobs: Higher growth attracts investments, creates employment, and improves income levels.
  • Policy Planning: Helps governments and central banks plan budgets, taxes, and interest rates for stable economic growth.

Conclusion

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👉 Daily Current Affairs – 11th December 2025

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