The United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) State of World Population 2025 Report has placed India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This has sparked debate over country’s economic and demographic future.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
- TFR is a statistical estimate showing the average number of children a woman is likely to have if current age-specific fertility trends continue throughout her reproductive years (15–49 years).
- How it is Calculated:
- The reproductive age is divided into seven five-year age groups (15–19, 20–24 … 45–49).
- The Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) — number of births per 1,000 women in each group — is calculated.
- These are then converted into per-woman rates and summed to give the TFR.
- Synthetic Cohort Assumption: It assumes that young women today will have fertility patterns similar to today’s older women — a major simplification that often fails to reflect reality.
Limitations in India’s TFR Calculation
- Unrealistic Assumptions: Fertility preferences change over time, especially as women’s education and employment levels rise.
- Tempo Effect: When women postpone births, the TFR temporarily falls even if they eventually have the same number of children.
- Urban–Rural Divide: In cities, fertility is being delayed to later age groups (25–34 years). In villages, births are shifting from teenage mothers to slightly older women, but older age groups show a genuine decline.
- Exclusion of Certain Births: The TFR ignores births to women below 15 or above 49, though early pregnancies still occur in parts of India. Social taboos and underreporting lead to data gaps.
Implications for Policy
- A low TFR does not automatically threaten economic growth — developed regions like Europe and East Asia have thrived with similar rates.
- India has not fully utilised its demographic dividend due to high youth unemployment and skill mismatches.
- Ageing is an emerging issue, but today’s elderly population is not caused by current fertility decline.
- Instead of trying to raise fertility, India should focus on healthcare, social security, and female empowerment to ensure balanced development.
Conclusion
India’s reported TFR of 1.9 may not fully reflect real fertility behaviour due to data and methodological limitations. Policymakers must interpret these figures cautiously, focusing on improving employment, healthcare, and social systems rather than simply targeting population numbers.
This topic is available in detail on our main website.
