Recent signals from the United States about restarting nuclear explosive tests have created uncertainty in an already fragile arms-control environment. This shift threatens balance among nuclear powers and poses strategic concerns for countries like India.
Nuclear explosive tests
- The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is facing its deepest crisis since 1996.
- Former U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at reviving nuclear testing, breaking a three-decade voluntary moratorium.
- The move comes at a time when Russia has withdrawn CTBT ratification and China denies conducting explosive tests, adding to mutual distrust.
- These developments may trigger a new phase of nuclear competition and doctrinal shifts.
Evolution of the Nuclear Order
- Post-World War II period: Nuclear weapons peaked at ~65,000 in the 1970s; now reduced to ~12,500.
- Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): Created a system distinguishing five recognized nuclear powers from newer entrants like India and Pakistan.
- CTBT negotiations (1993–96): Though not in force, created a global political norm against nuclear explosive testing.
Why U.S. Testing Matters
- End of restraint: U.S. reversal of its 1992 testing moratorium may encourage other major powers to follow.
- Shift toward tactical nuclear weapons: Development of low-yield warheads increases the potential for battlefield use and miscalculation.
- Challenge to verification norms: U.S. alleges that Russia and China conduct “non-yield” tests, undermining mutual confidence.
Why CTBT Is Breaking Down
- The treaty has not entered into force because eight key states (including the U.S., China, India, Pakistan) have not ratified it.
- Russia’s de-ratification deepens mistrust.
- Competing interpretations of what counts as a “zero-yield” test weaken the verification and compliance regime.
Technology and the New Arms Race
- Rising investments in hypersonic missiles, autonomous delivery platforms, and advanced missile defence systems are altering strategic calculations.
- Nuclear powers are leaning toward counterforce doctrines, increasing risks of instability.
Implications for India
- Possible chain reaction of testing by China or Pakistan may widen strategic asymmetry.
- China–Pakistan nuclear collaboration continues to pose challenges.
- India must weigh the need for credible minimum deterrence while maintaining its reputation for responsible behaviour.
WHAT IS CTBT?
- CTBT stands for Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, a global agreement that bans all nuclear explosions—military or civilian.
- It aims to stop countries from testing nuclear weapons, preventing new designs and slowing the nuclear arms race.
- The treaty has not come into force because some key countries (including the U.S., China, India, Pakistan) have not ratified it.
Why P5 Countries Have Access to Nuclear Weapons?
- The NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) of 1968 officially recognises only five countries—the U.S., Russia, China, UK, and France (P5)—as nuclear-weapon states because they tested nuclear weapons before 1967.
- These countries were given legal status under the NPT in exchange for a promise to reduce their nuclear arsenals and work toward disarmament.
- NPT rules do not allow any other country to gain nuclear-weapon status, which is why India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are outside the recognised group.
Conclusion
The weakening of the CTBT framework marks a major shift in global nuclear politics. Renewed testing by major powers may accelerate modernisation races and undermine hard-won norms. For India, the priority will be to secure strategic stability while upholding its commitment to restraint, transparency, and responsible deterrence.
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